Navigating ISP Market Uncertainties through Scenario Planning

Abstrakt

Indonesia's growing internet penetration presents opportunities for new Internet Service Providers (ISPs), though competition is fierce due to low entry barriers and the emergence of disruptive technologies like Starlink. This leads to price wars, pressuring companies to balance margins with service quality. PT. Sinyal Global Nusantara (PT SGN), a newcomer in the ISP market, previously worked as an ISP contractor and aims to leverage its operational advantages for better service delivery and premium after-sales support. To navigate this competitive landscape, PT SGN must adopt a proactive strategy tailored to the evolving market dynamics over the next five years. The research employed a Scenario Planning framework, starting with a macro-environmental analysis using PESTEL, Porter's Five Forces, and SWOT analyses. Two key uncertainties identified are Government Policy and Regulation especially regarding illegal ISPs and Market Demand for Product Diversification. These uncertainties yield four scenarios: "The Bat's Order," "Gotham Seal," "The Arkham Unleashed," and "Dark Knight Falls." Each scenario requires monitoring Early Warning Signals (EWS) like Smart Home market trends and regulatory changes. It is recommended that PT SGN focus on product diversification, enhance operational efficiency, and engage actively with industry associations to navigate the competitive landscape effectively.