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Eduvest – Journal of Universal Studies Volume 3 Number 3, March, 2023 p- ISSN 2775-3735-
e-ISSN 2775-3727 |
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LINKAGES AND MULTIPLIERS OF THE
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN THE REGIONAL ECONOMY IN TANGGAMUS REGENCY:
INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS |
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Muhammad Irfan Affandi, Fadhilah Ismi Bazai, I Wayan
Suparta Universitas Lampung,
Indonesia Email: [email protected],
[email protected], [email protected] |
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ABSTRACT |
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One of the
regional developments carried out is development in the agricultural sector.
Development in agriculture is expected to be a catalyst in achieving the goal
of increasing the regional economy. This study aims to analyze the linkages
and multipliers of the agricultural sector to the regional economy in
Tanggamus Regency. The method used is input-output analysis which consists of
linkage analysis, dispersion impact, and output and income multiplier effect.
The results of the analysis conclude that the agricultural sector has a
linkage to the manufacturing sector in the future; and the transportation and
warehousing sector, then has backward linkages with the real estate sector
and the construction sector. The agricultural sector is able to drive production
growth in the downstream industrial sector. The output multiplier and income
multiplier of the agricultural sector has a lower value compared to other
economic sectors |
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KEYWORDS |
Agriculture, Regional Economy,
Input-output, Linkage, Multiplier effect |
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This work is licensed under a Creative
Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International |
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INTRODUCTION
Regional development is an effort to spur socio-economic development,
reduce disparities between regions, and maintain environmental sustainability
in a region, so that regional development aims to optimize the potential
possessed by a region. One of the regional developments carried out is development in the
agricultural sector. Development in agriculture is expected to be a catalyst in
achieving the goal of increasing the regional economy. Regional
development is closely related to the development strategy towards achieving
optimal and sustainable prosperity (Nugroho 2004) , so that in this case a development
priority strategy is needed by prioritizing the comparative and competitive
advantages of an economic sector, (Arifien, Fafurida, and Noekent 2012) .
One of the
areas with the agricultural sector as the leading sector in Lampung Province is
Tanggamus Regency. The average contribution of the agricultural sector to GRDP
from 2015 to 2019 was 44.13% with a contribution to GRDP in 2019 of 4.6
trillion rupiah (BPS 2020b) . Seen in Table 1, even though in the last
five years the agricultural sector was the main contributor in contributing to
GRDP in Tanggamus Regency, this sector has always experienced a decrease in
contribution every year. The decline that occurs every year can be seen in
which sub-sectors are still influential and are no longer influential.
In addition, the decline occurred
because there were other sectors that experienced an increase in the number of
contributions to GRDP each year, such as the wholesale and retail trade sector;
car and motorcycle repair. This means that while other sectors experienced an
increase in total output, the agricultural sector actually experienced a
decline. This is in accordance with Saragih's theory (2010) that
the agricultural sector is a very important sector in the national economy, but
in the stages of economic development, business activities and services based
on agriculture are also increasing, such as agribusiness activities (including
agro-industry) will become one of the activities superior ( a leading sector )
of national economic development in various broad aspects.
In addition, the cause of the
decrease in contribution is the conversion of agricultural land to
non-agricultural land, (BPS 2020b) . The
increasing population causes the demand for land to increase ( demand side )
while the availability of land does not increase ( supply side ) is one of the
causes of the conversion of agricultural land, (Kusumastuti, M. Kolopaking, and Barus 2018) . This
is in accordance with research (Saputra 2017) which states that Tanggamus Regency has
experienced a slowdown in its contribution to GRDP and an increase in the
conversion of agricultural land. The growth rate of the economic sector can
also be an indicator of whether a sector can be said to be potential or not in
an effort to develop a region. It is known that the growth rate of the
wholesale and retail trade sector in 2015 was 1.43% and increased quite
significantly in 2019, namely 9.46%, (BPS 2020a) .
Even though it has experienced a
decrease in GRDP and a low growth rate, Tanggamus Regency is able to absorb a
large number of workers and has good natural resource potential. Research (Lisdayanti 2017) , (Hayati, Elfiana, and Martina 2017) , and (Huda, Purnamadewi, and Firdaus 2015) state that the number of workers can be
used as an indicator to calculate the development of a region. Data states that
the workforce in Tanggamus Regency is 65.3% of the workforce in the formal
sector and 2.81% of the workforce in the informal sector with a total workforce
in the agricultural sector of 174,216 people (BPS 2020a) .
Based on this, the development of the
agricultural sector in Tanggamus Regency needs to be prioritized considering
that many people in Tanggamus Regency make their main livelihood in the
agricultural sector. The development of the agricultural sector in Tanggamus
Regency is expected to become a strategic sector to increase regional economic
growth through increasing the role and linkages with other sectors within the
internal region. The linkages of the agricultural sector must be increased so
as to be able to attract upstream sectors (sector that have backward linkages) and
encourage downstream sectors (sectors that have forward linkages). The stronger
the linkages between the agricultural sector and other sectors, the greater the
influence on regional development in Tanggamus Regency.
By knowing the role of the
agricultural, forestry and fisheries sectors through the base sector, it is
hoped that it can improve the community's economy and people's welfare, so that
it can also increase the development of the Tanggamus Regency area. Research
related to the role of the agricultural sector in regional development has been
carried out by several researchers. The agricultural sector plays a very
important role in regional development in Bireuen District, Aceh Province, (Hayati et al. 2017) and in East Java Province (Huda et al., 2015)
It is hoped that the great
potential of Tanggamus Regency as a means of providing production raw materials
for its downstream sectors is expected to be further enhanced so that the
contribution of the agricultural sector to the economy of Tanggamus Regency can
be more optimal. Based on this description, this study aims to determine the
role of the agricultural sector in regional development in Tanggamus Regency by
knowing the linkages, impact of dispersion, and the multiplier effect of the
agricultural sector with other sectors.
RESEARCH
METHOD
Data analysis was carried out through a quantitative
description approach using input-output (IO) analysis. The input output
analysis method used in this study is as follows.
Linkage Analysis
This analysis is used to see the relationship between
the agricultural sector and other economic sectors in Tanggamus Regency.
Direct forward linkage; look at the amount of
agricultural sector output that is used as input by other economic sectors.
Mathematically formulated as follows.
F(d)i = ∑aij ...............................................
...............................(1)
where F(d)i is the direct forward linkage value
obtained from the input coefficient matrix ( aij ).
Direct and indirect forward linkages; see the role of
the agricultural sector in driving the development of its downstream sector
directly and indirectly.
F(d+i)i = ∑aij ...............................................
..................................(2)
where F(d+i)i is the value of
the direct and indirect forward linkages obtained from the input coefficient
inverse matrix ( aij ).
Direct backward linkage; look at the amount of input
used by the agricultural sector from other economic sectors.
B(d)j = ∑aij ..........................................
...............................(3)
where B(d)i is the direct backward linkage value
obtained from the input coefficient matrix ( aij ).
Direct and indirect backward linkages; look at the
effect of direct and indirect changes in the final demand of the agricultural
sector on the total output of other economic sectors.
Deployment Impact Analysis
Analysis of the impact of the spread is the
development of linkage analysis. This analysis is divided into sensitivity
index and dispersion index. Multiplier effect analysis is used to see the
impact of changes in the final demand of the agricultural sector on the economy
in Tanggamus Regency, both the output and income multiple effects
RESULT
AND DISCUSSION
Linkage Analysis
The linkage of the agricultural sector
with other sectors in Tanggamus Regency can be seen through forward linkage and backward linkage which is further divided into two, namely direct
and indirect. Direct forward linkages are obtained from the input coefficient
matrix, whereas to see indirect forward linkages obtained from the inverse
matrix of input coefficients or leontifs. The greater the value of the input
coefficient matrix and the input coefficient inverse matrix, the greater the
forward linkages between the agricultural sector and other sectors, so that the
greater the dependence of certain sectors on the agricultural sector in the
supply of inputs or raw materials for the production process.
The total value of direct forward
linkages; the largest direct and indirect in Tanggamus Regency are among others
the agricultural sector, namely 130.1444; processing industry sector, namely
115.7750; and the transportation and warehousing sector, namely 113.1034. The
value of the direct forward linkage of the agricultural sector is 0.2552,
meaning that for 1 billion output produced by the agricultural sector, the
output used as input by other economic sectors is worth 0.2552 billion, while
the value of the indirect forward linkage is 129 .8892 means that if there is
an increase in the final sector demand worth 1 billion, then the agricultural
sector will directly and indirectly encourage the development of the downstream
sector worth 129.8992 billion.
For the manufacturing industry sector,
the direct forward linkage value of the sector is 0.2305, which means that for
1 billion output produced by the manufacturing sector, the output used as input
by other economic sectors is 0.2305 billion, while the linkage value is In the
future, the indirect demand is 115.5444, which means that if there is an
increase in the final demand sector worth 1 billion, then the manufacturing
sector will directly and indirectly encourage the development of the downstream
sector worth 115.5444 billion. Likewise with the transportation and warehousing
sector, the direct forward linkage value of the sector is 0.2220, which means
that for 1 billion output produced by the manufacturing sector, the output used
as input by other economic sectors is worth 0.2220 billion. while the indirect
forward linkage value is 112.8814, which means that if there is an increase in
the final demand sector worth 1 billion, then the manufacturing sector will
directly and indirectly encourage the development of its downstream sector
worth 112.8814 billion. The results of the analysis of the forward linkages of
the economic sector in Tanggamus Regency can be seen in Table 1 below.
Table 1 The results of the
analysis of the future linkages of the economic sector in Tanggamus Regency,
2019
|
Sector |
Forward Linkage |
|||
|
Direct |
Direct and Indirect |
Total |
Rating |
|
|
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries |
0.2552 |
129.8892 |
130.1444 |
1 |
|
Mining and excavation |
0.0146 |
7.7968 |
7.8114 |
9 |
|
Processing industry |
0.2305 |
115.5444 |
115.7750 |
2 |
|
Supply of electricity and gas |
0.0072 |
4.7855 |
4.7927 |
15 |
|
Water supply, waste management, waste
recycling |
0.0007 |
1.3816 |
1.3824 |
17 |
|
Construction |
0.0373 |
11.2277 |
11.2650 |
7 |
|
Wholesale and retail trade; car and
motorcycle repair |
0.0244 |
13.3876 |
13.4120 |
5 |
|
Transportation and warehousing |
0.2220 |
112.8814 |
113.1034 |
3 |
|
Provision of accommodation and meals |
0.0760 |
39.6085 |
39.6845 |
4 |
|
Information and communication |
0.0131 |
7.7884 |
7.8015 |
10 |
|
Financial and insurance services |
0.0128 |
7.7225 |
7.7353 |
12 |
|
Real estate |
0.0075 |
4.9172 |
4.9247 |
14 |
|
Company services |
0.0009 |
1.4566 |
1.4575 |
16 |
|
Administration of government, defense, and
mandatory social security |
0.0076 |
4.9384 |
4.9460 |
13 |
|
Educational services |
0.0141 |
7.7760 |
7.7902 |
11 |
|
Health services and social activities |
0.0232 |
12.4194 |
12.4426 |
6 |
|
other services |
0.0195 |
10.9597 |
10.9792 |
8 |
Source: BPS
Tanggamus Regency, 2020
Because the agricultural sector has the
greatest value of direct and indirect linkages, in total, the economic sector
in Tanggamus Regency has the strongest direct and indirect linkages with the
agricultural sector, while in detail, the agricultural sector has forward
linkages with the industrial sector. processing; and the transportation and
trade industry sector. Thus the development is directed at the development of
the processing industry sector and; the transportation and warehousing sector
will have a direct impact; directly and indirectly to the development of the
agricultural sector. This is in line with Harianto (2007)
which states that increased growth in the agricultural sector can encourage
agro-industry development, infrastructure growth, rural and urban areas,
increased human resources, and increased demand in the non-agricultural sector.
In addition, this research is also in line with research (Widyawati 2017) namely the agricultural sector has links
to other sectors as providers of inputs (goods and services) with other sectors
which ultimately affect national economic growth.
Just like the forward linkage value, the
backward linkage value is directly obtained from the input coefficient matrix;
and the values of direct and indirect backward linkages are obtained from the
input coefficient inverse matrix. The greater the value of the input
coefficient matrix and the inverse coefficient matrix of a sector's input, the
greater the direct backward linkage; directly and indirectly the sector to the
agricultural sector. Thus, it can be seen the role of output of other sectors in
supporting the increase in output of the agricultural sector. The results of
the analysis of the backward linkage value of the economic sector in Tanggamus
Regency can be seen in Table 2 below.
Table 2 Results of the analysis of the backward
linkages of the economic sector in Tanggamus Regency, 2019
|
Sector |
Back linkage |
|||
|
Direct |
Direct and Indirect |
Total |
Rating |
|
|
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries |
0.9199 |
25.1722 |
26.0921 |
17 |
|
Mining and excavation |
0.9334 |
28.3052 |
29.2386 |
14 |
|
Processing industry |
0.9879 |
29.2989 |
30.2868 |
10 |
|
Supply of electricity and gas |
0.9992 |
29.6275 |
30.6267 |
7 |
|
Water supply, waste management, waste
recycling |
0.9974 |
30.6275 |
31.6248 |
3 |
|
Construction |
0.9910 |
30.7233 |
31.7143 |
2 |
|
Wholesale and retail trade; car and
motorcycle repair |
0.8312 |
25.6776 |
26.5088 |
16 |
|
Transportation and warehousing |
0.9926 |
30.2357 |
31.2283 |
5 |
|
Provision of accommodation and meals |
0.9950 |
28.4552 |
29.4502 |
13 |
|
Information and communication |
0.9516 |
28.9632 |
29.9149 |
11 |
|
Financial and insurance services |
0.9816 |
29.6929 |
30.6746 |
6 |
|
Real estate |
0.9913 |
31.3147 |
32.3061 |
1 |
|
Company services |
0.9983 |
30.4294 |
31.4278 |
4 |
|
Administration of
government, defense, and mandatory social security |
0.9255 |
27.9992 |
28.9247 |
15 |
|
Educational
services |
0.9748 |
28.9228 |
29.8976 |
12 |
|
Health services
and social activities |
0.9943 |
29.4139 |
30.4083 |
9 |
|
other services |
0.9928 |
29.6217 |
30.6144 |
8 |
Source: BPS Tanggamus Regency, 2020
The total value of direct backward
linkages; indirectly, the largest of Tanggamus Regency are among others; real estate sector , namely 32.3060; the
construction sector, namely 31.7143; and the water supply sector, waste
management, waste recycling, namely 31.6248; while the agricultural sector is
ranked 17th or the lowest rank, namely 26.0921. Therefore, the agricultural sector
has backward linkages to the real estate
sector ; construction sector; and the sector of water supply, waste
management, waste recycling. Thus, the development of the three sectors will
have a direct impact; directly and indirectly to the agricultural sector.
The value of the direct backward linkage
of the water supply, waste management, and recycled waste sectors is 0.9974
which means that for 1 billion output produced by this sector, the amount of
input needed by the water supply, waste management, and recycled waste sectors
is other economies is worth 0.9974 billion, while the value of the direct and
indirect backward linkages of the water supply sector, waste management, waste
recycling is 30.6275, meaning that if there is an increase in final demand of 1
billion, then the water supply sector, waste management , recycled waste will
directly and indirectly increase or attract the development of the upstream
sector or other economic sectors worth 30.6275 billion.
Deployment Impact Analysis
The results of the analysis of the impact
of the spread can be seen from the continued results of the analysis of the
input output table for Tanggamus Regency in 2019. The analysis of the degree of
sensitivity and the power of spread is the analysis used in the input-output
analysis. The degree of sensitivity index describes the relative impact caused
by the external influence of the agricultural sector on other downstream
sectors. The degree of sensitivity index can be used to analyze the sensitivity
of certain sectors to external influences, while the power of distribution
describes the strength of the agricultural sector in stimulating output growth
in other economic sectors so as to spur economic growth (Zuhdi 2017) .
The agricultural sector has a Degree of
Sensitivity Index value of more than one (IDK> 1), namely 1.0565, which
means that the agricultural sector is able to drive production growth in its
downstream industrial sector, is a raw material for industry and other economic
sectors, and can used for direct and indirect consumption. This is in line with
Harianto's theory (2007) which states that the important role of the
agricultural sector in the economy includes (1) provision of food; (2) supply
of raw materials; (3) as a potential market for products produced by the
industry; (4) sources of labor and formation of capital needed by other
sectors; (5) foreign exchange sources; (6) reducing poverty and increasing food
security; and (7) contributing to village development and environmental
preservation and research results (Wildan, Darsono, and Sutrisno 2018) which states that a sector that has a
high sensitivity index value means that sector has more sensitivity to external
influences. This value also shows the large role of the agricultural sector in
driving the economy in Tanggamus Regency.
The Spreading Power Index (IDP) value of
the agricultural sector has a value of less than one (IDP <1), namely
0.9502, so that the agricultural sector in Tanggamus Regency has not been able
to attract growth in the upstream sector either directly or indirectly. This is
because the agricultural sector is the earliest sector in the economic sector
chain. Because the agricultural sector has an IDP value of <1 but an IDK
value of> 1, the agricultural sector is included in the supporting sector
for key sectors. Key sectors are sectors that have IDP and IDK values of more
than one. There are 9 key sectors in Tanggamus Regency including the manufacturing
industry sector; electricity and gas procurement sector; sector of water
supply, waste management, waste recycling; transportation and warehousing
sector; the accommodation and food supply sector; financial services and
insurance sector; real estate sector
; corporate service sector; and other service sectors. The results of this
study are in line with research (Zuhdi 2017) which states that the spreading power
index looks at the strength of a sector in influencing all sectors, while
Tanggamus Regency has weak strength in its spread (backward linkage). This can
be seen from the total value of the backward linkages of the agricultural
sector, where the sector is in the last sequence, namely rank 17.
Multiplier Effect Analysis
Multiplier effect analysis analyzed in
this study is the multiplier effect of output and income. Analysis of the
output and income multiplier effect is used to see the impact of changes or
increases in output and income on the final demand of a sector on the economy
in Tanggamus Regency. The multiplier number describes
the impact that occurs on certain endogenous variables due to changes in
exogenous variables in the economy.
The economic sector in Tanggamus Regency
which has the greatest value of the output multiplier effect is the real estate
sector, namely 31.3147; the construction sector, namely 30.7233; and the water
supply sector, waste management, waste recycling, namely 30.6274. This means
that these three sectors are the sectors that have the greatest impact on the
increase in output in other economic sectors. Thus, if there is an increase in
final demand of 1 billion in the three sectors, it will have an impact on the
increase in output on other economic sectors including the three sectors
themselves.
The agricultural sector is at the very
end, ranking 17th in terms of having an impact on increasing output on other
economic sectors (Table 6) with a value of 25.1722. This value means that if
there is an increase in final demand of 1 billion in the agricultural sector,
there will be an increase in output in other economic sectors worth 25.1722
billion. This research is in accordance with the results of research (Harianto 2007) which states that the agricultural sector plays an
important role in the rural economy so that if the growth of the agricultural
sector increases, output in other economic sectors will also increase. In
addition, this research is also in line with research (Arianti 2014) namely an increase in final demand in a sector will
have an impact on increasing output or production of goods and services.
The economic sectors in Tanggamus Regency
which have the greatest value of the income multiplier effect are among others
the electricity and gas procurement sector, namely 1728.8593; the corporate
service sector, namely 470.1432; and the water supply sector, waste management,
waste recycling, namely 176.5967. This means that these three sectors are the
sectors that have the greatest impact on increasing income in other economic
sectors. Thus, if there is an increase in final demand of 1 billion in these
three sectors, it will have an impact on increasing income on other economic
sectors including the three sectors themselves.
The value of the income multiplier impact
of the agricultural sector is 14.5634 which means that if there is an increase
in final demand of 1 billion in the agricultural sector, there will be an
increase in income in the economic sector worth 14.5634 billion. This is in
accordance with the results of research (Harianto 2007) that the agricultural sector plays an important role in
income, both household income and income of other economic sectors. Judging
from the value of the multiplier effect, the agricultural sector is not
included in the strategic sector in Tanggamus Regency because it is at the
bottom both in terms of output and income. This result means that the
agricultural sector has a low ability to encourage or stimulate additional
output and income in Tanggamus Regency. This is due to the limited facilities
and infrastructure in the agricultural sector. This result is in line with
theory (Suryani 2013) which states that a strategic sector is a
sector that has large forward and backward linkages and is able to create large
multiplier numbers in the economy,
whereas in this case the agricultural sector in Tanggamus Regency belongs to
the in lower rank. The fact that the agricultural sector is not a strategic
sector is very ironic when viewed from the contribution it makes to the GRDP of
Tanggamus Regency
CONCLUSION
The
agricultural sector has forward linkages to the manufacturing sector and the
transportation and warehousing sector, and has backward linkages to the real
estate sector and the construction sector. Based on the dispersion impact
value, the agricultural sector plays an important role in encouraging the
development of its downstream sector, but has a low dispersion power so that it
is included in the supporting sector. The results of the output and income
multiplier analysis show that the agricultural sector has a lower multiplier
effect than other economic sectors.
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