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Susi Safitri, Atira Cesare Mutia. (2022). The Impact of China –

Emission Trading System Policy Effectiveness on Economic and

Future Forecast: Evidence from Pilot City. Journal Eduvest. Vol (2):

746-754

E-ISSN:

2775-3727

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Eduvest – Journal of Universal Studies

Volume 2 Number 4, April, 2022

p- ISSN 2775-3735- e-ISSN 2775-3727

THE IMPACT OF CHINA –EMISSION TRADING SYSTEM

POLICY EFFECTIVENESS ON ECONOMIC AND FUTURE

FORECAST: EVIDENCE FROM PILOT CITY

Susi Safitri, Atira Cesare Mutia

School of Business, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,

Nanjing 210044, China

School of Business, Nanjing Southeast University, Nanjing 210044，China

Email: [email protected], atira.mutia@yahoo.com

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Received:

March, 26

2022

Revised:

April, 16

2022

Approved:

April, 18

2022

China ETS is a system that is implemented in 7 regions in China

which called pilot areas, including Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin,

Chongqing, Hubei, Guangdong and Shenzhen, which aiming at

reducing GHG emissions or, more specifically, CO2 gas by

limiting the production of carbon gas from each emitter (cap)

the difference between the emission level and the value of the

cap is called a trade (trade). By using panel data and Linear

Regression we analyze the impact of China-ETS policy on China

Economic growth (GDP) while at the same time analyze the

carbon price trend which is one of the factor of the ETS system

succeed. The result showing that ETS policy effectively impacts

on reducing carbon emission, and there have corelation

between carbon price and the carbon amount, Lastly, using

ARIMA model on forecasting the carbon amount within 10

years.

KEYWORDS

China-ETS; Carbon price; GDP ; Carbon Emission

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons

Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International

INTRODUCTION

China as the world most populous country, 1.4 billion peoples in 2020

(imf.org.2020), with a fast economy growth, made it becoming the largest energy consumer

and producer in the world. In the midst of Covid-19 pandemic issue, China could keep the

Susi Safitri, Atira Cesare Mutia

The Impact of China –Emission Trading System Policy Effectiveness on Economic and

Future Forecast: Evidence from Pilot City 747

growth of GDP in 2020 by 2.3% (imf.org.2020), even though this value is not as much high

as the previous year. In 2020, China’s carbon emission was decreased around 1.4% from

the previous year (Marshall.2021) due to Covid-19 outbreak. But compared to the world

data, China still become the largest carbon emitter (28%) in the world surpassing the United

States (15%) due to the growing development of their industry (Friedlingstein et al.2020).

Starting on 2013, China was started to implement the national ETS“Emission Trading

System’s to limit and reduce CO

emissions in a cost-effective manner, which suitable

with other policies such as: energy conservation standards, air pollution standards, power

market reform and capacity retirement plans. This policy will initially adopted to some

cities and provinces, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing ,Shenzhen, Guangdong,

and Hubei provinces as the top7 provinces account for two-thirds of the country’s CO

emissions emitter from coal-fired power plants and the “big five” state owned power

companies by capacity account for 50% (IEA.2020)

By this 7 years of ETS implementation in China, many researchers had study the

impact of the China’s ETS implementation both for environment and economic aspect. Yu

et al (2017) used the data envelopment analysis model (denoted as DEA) to analyze the

potential benefits of the ETS and found that it generated a 21.0% average potential

environmental benefit and a 92.0% average potential economic benefit for industry.

Another study from Zhu et al (2020) combined the PSM-DID model with the DEA model

and discussed the impacts of the ETS on green development efficiency in China. Their

conclusions show that the ETS has a significant positive impact of 4.25% on green

development efficiency. While the study from Zhang et al (2020) shows the different

conclusion with the two previous studies where the carbon emission in pilot ETS China is

reduced by 14.5% in line with GDP fell by 4.8% using combination of PSM-DID model

measurement. They analyze that the GDP reducing is comes from the declined of

production in the included of industrial subsectors.

Based on these data, almost all of the studies found that the ETS had a significant inhibitory

impact on carbon emissions, but the conclusions related to economic effect were different.

However, the application of China’s ETS will gradually checked by National Development

and Reform Commission (NDRC) for the achievement goal. This program will help China

to set the best strategy for reducing the negative impact on the climate while at the same

time maintaining the life standard as well as supporting the growing population and avoid

economic losses.

RESEARCH METHOD

The aim of this study is to measure the effect of China ETS implementation on

economic growth (economic effect) and CO

emission (environmental effect) by assessing

the trend of the effectiveness of ETS implementation in the term of carbon emission

reduction, economic impact on pilot city, the impact on economic, and predicting the

promising future forecasting. In this study we set ETS implementation in Shanghai, Beijing,

Tianjin, Chongqing, Hubei, Guangdong, and Shenzhen as the independent variable that

compared to some dependent variable such as: the carbon (CO

) amount, carbon price, GDP,

GDP per capita, and carbon amount per capita of each city. Then we assess the relation of

each variable both in city scale and national scale. In city scale, we assess the trend impact

of ETS implementation in carbon amount, carbon price, and GDP of each city annually. In

national scale we assess the trend impact of ETS implementation in carbon amount, GDP,

and forecast of ETS trend in the future annually.

The selection of 7 pilot region as the variable in this study was related to the China

strategy of ETS implementation that using these 7 pilot region samples as the representation

of the highest emission contributor city around the country (35% of the total amount). The

Eduvest – Journal of Universal Studies

Volume 2 Number 4, April 2022

748 http://eduvest.greenvest.co.id

other consideration was come from some aspects such as: the geographical locations of

each city (spread over China), the carbon emissions of each city (energy production from

industry activities), and gross economies (advance industrialization) that make different

value representation, and the fact that all pilot cities were follow the principle of

“invigorating the large ones while relaxing the small one” which can cover sectors that

possibly strong development endowments and great emission reduction potential (Zhang

et al, 2014; Wang et al, 2018).

The data used in this study were collected from the year of 2000 until 2019 by taking on

the Carbon Emission Accounts & Datasets for emerging economies (CEADs) database for the

carbon amount of each city; World Bank Dashboard for the carbon pricing of each city; GDP

each city; Our World in Database for the carbon amount per capita of national China; World

Bank Data for GDP per capita of national China. The collected data then statistically processed

using a mathematical software (Minitab, Origin, Microsoft Excel) to measure the trend of each

variable relation. Here we used some statistical method that suitable to the function needed of

each method and the goal set of each study variable.

RESULT AND DISCUSSION

1. Effectiveness of ETS Implementation

The ETS implementation in China was initially started at the end of 2013 in 7 pilot

areas. This scheme be expected to reduce the carbon (CO

) emission in China as the largest

country of carbon contributor in the world. The effectiveness of ETS implementation could

be seen by the decreasing of carbon emission amount per capita.

Figure 1. Annual China Carbon Emission

Breaking down to city scale, the trend of decreasing carbon emission after ETS

implementation also captured in each city carbon amount, especially for the 7 pilot cities

as a treatment city. The scatterplot diagram in figure 2 shows a negative effect between

carbon emission amount by the year after ETS implementation.

Carbon Emission Increasing (Mt) Annually

year

Carbon

emission per

capita

Susi Safitri, Atira Cesare Mutia

The Impact of China –Emission Trading System Policy Effectiveness on Economic and

Future Forecast: Evidence from Pilot City 749

Figure 2. Carbon emission of 7 pilot areas in China before - after ETS implementation

The graph shows that almost all of areas are undergoing a decreasing of carbon

emission amount at the first year of ETS implementation (in 2013), but only Guangdong

didn’t following this trend. This anomaly is happened because as we know that Guangdong

is the largest industrial city in China which much industry activity is supported from a high

energy source from non-renewable energy. To fulfil its industrial needs, Guangdong keep

built a power generation where the total installed power capacity is keep increase from 71

GW in 2010 to 103 GW in 2013. The emissions from power sectors are the largest and

relatively concentrated, which accounted for 54% because the power sector in Guangdong

still use coal, crude oil and fossil-fueled energy. But after ETS policy implemented, the

power sector in Guangdong is started to change their strategy by develop some renewable

and nuclear energy uses. Besides that, they implement the environmentally friendly

technology to mitigate carbon emission by installing a carbon capture and storage (CCS)

technology in the machine (Zhao et al, 2013).

Then to making sure the effectiveness of ETS implementation in China, then we

compared carbon amount value of 7 pilot areas (treatment) with other city (controlled)

spanning from 2000 – 2020. We use t-test: “paired two sample for means” method to

analyse the result, as below:

Table 1. t-test carbon amount emission of pilot city vs other city

Pilot city

Other city

Mean

157.7786435

298.2098446

Variance

1993.661513

15155.25143

Observations

Eduvest – Journal of Universal Studies

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750 http://eduvest.greenvest.co.id

Pearson Correlation

0.966559311

Hypothesized Mean Difference

t Stat

7.775969377

P(T<=t) one-tail

1.27443E-07

t Critical one-tail

1.729132792

P(T<=t) two-tail

2.54886E-07

t Critical two-tail

2.09302405

Based on t-test result, there is a deviation of mean carbon emission between pilot

and other cities. It could be seen from the p-value which is lower than alpha (5%). The

deviation value is about 47.1% (as shown in figure 5.3), where the carbon emission mean

of pilot city is 157.77, while for other cities is 298.21. The deviation value is showing a

significant deviation between the carbon emission in pilot city and other cities, means that

the ETS effectiveness is satisfying to implement in China.

2. Impact on Economy

Generally on implementing a new ploicy in some are will bring impact to those area,

especially the economic sector of those area, since economy is one of the main sources that

regulate the cycle of life. Likewise, the implementation of ETS has also had a significant

impact on the economic system in 7 pilot cities. To analyze the effect of ETS

implementation in the economic aspect of each city, we process the data of GDP (gross

domestic product) as one of indicator of the economic succession that compared to carbon

emission produced.

Susi Safitri, Atira Cesare Mutia

The Impact of China –Emission Trading System Policy Effectiveness on Economic and

Future Forecast: Evidence from Pilot City 751

Figure 4. GDP value of 7 pilot areas compared to carbon emission in China before - after

ETS implementation

Based on the scatter plot in figure 5.4 above, it can be seen that there is an opposite

relationship between GDP value with the carbon emission amount, where the decreasing

of carbon emission amount after ETS implementation mainly effected on increasing GDP

value in almost all areas. It shows that the ETS implementation not only positively impact

in environmental aspect, but also in economical aspect. Based on economy growth theory

- Schumpeter Theory (Langroodi, 2017), innovation becoming an important thing should

be upgraded continually to make an economy country keep growth in other to be survive

and win the economic goal. Here, ETS becoming a strategy implemented by China to

strengthen the country economic by look deeper on untouched factor yet like environment

issue. ETS not only can cut the amount of carbon emission off, but further more, it will

earn more money from saving energy by the limitation carbon emission producing

implementation. It’s legalistic with the other economic growth theory from Harrod Domer

(Thong et al, 2019) saying that a country should backing up its income to replace, or, even

add the fund for the next business, so the economy cycle could keep rotating, further more

to broaden up the coverage area business.

From the scatter plot in figure 5.4 too, it can be seen that from the 7 pilot cities that

being treated for ETS Implementation, Guangdong became a city that produced the largest

carbon amount, while the least one was Shenzhen, in the same trend with GDP

achievement. It because……………...

To looking more detail, here is the descriptive statistics of the variables are given in the

following table:

Table 2. Research variable descriptive statistics

Pilot

Variable

Mean

StDev

Minimu

Media

Maximu

Shanghai

Carbon

Amount

194

6,58

187

195

200

202

27,40

188

190

257

GDP

18.848

1.538,00

17.166

19.196

20.182

30.274

6.693,00

21.818

29.406

38.701

Beijing

CarbonAmou

4,39

103

104

32,00

169

GDP

17.059

2.033,00

14.964

17.189

19.025

28.793

5.716,00

21.135

28.462

36.103

Tianjin

Carbon

Amount

149

11,04

137

152

158

155

13,42

141

154

180

GDP

11.142

1.840,00

9.224

11.307

12.894

15.580

1.921,00

13.363

15.084

18.549

Chongqin

Carbon

Amount

156

12,36

142

160

165

163

18,87

140

157

192

GDP

9.941

1.775,00

8.065

10.161

11.595

18.997

4.303,00

13.028

19.045

25.003

Hubei

Carbon

Amount

355

26,90

324

368

374

306

17,57

272

310

325

GDP

19.283

3.156,00

15.968

19.632

22.250

35.145

7.886,00

24.792

34.072

45.828

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750 http://eduvest.greenvest.co.id

520

57,70

444

508

618

GDP

52.008

5.608,00

45.945

53.073

57.008

87.239

18.214,0

62.503

86.906

110.761

Shenzhen

Carbon

Amount

GDP

11.829

1.716,00

10.069

11.923

13.496

21.795

4.726,00

15.234

21.983

27.670

N* : missing value

Based on the above table, in the column * there are 2 data for the carbon amount

variable in the ETS period from each pilot area data are not available, due to constraints

from the data sources obtained on 2019 and 2020. Then there is a carbon amount data

emptiness for Shenzhen as much as 9 out of a total of 11 data resulting in no statistical

significance for this row, so that the characteristics of the Shenzhen data cannot be

interpreted.

Based on the mean column for the carbon amount variable, it can be seen that

between the mean before the implementation of ETS and afterwards almost all increased,

except for Hubei which fell from 355 to 306. However, based on the median carbon amount

column, almost all countries decreased, except for Tianjin and Guangdong with a decrease

of 2 and 3 units. Meanwhile, for the GDP column, all countries experienced an increase in

the mean and median between before the implementation of ETS and after. Simple analysis

like this cannot be used as a benchmark for whether these two variables have increased or

decreased during the implementation of ETS because only few data is used. Then it is

necessary to do further research.

Because there are several missing values, the mean imputation method will be used

to overcome them. Of the 7 countries, only 6 will be used in this study because the carbon

amount of Shenzhen has a missing value of> 50%, it will be removed from this study to

avoid irrelevant results. Imputation is done by entering the average carbon amount of each

pilot area in the period after the implementation of ETS, which can be seen in the table

above.

The purpose of this study was to determine how the effect of ETS policy

implementation on environmental and economic conditions in China. Since there are two

main response variables, carbon emissions and GDP, this effect is measured by the carbon

amount per unit of GDP. The method used to see the effect of ETS policies on

environmental and economic conditions is simple linear regression. The following is the

process carried out in linear regression analysis.

3 Regression equation model

It can be seen that the coefficient after the ETS implementation is smaller, although only

slightly different. So indeed the implementation of this ETS has a good impact on the

environment and improves the economy in China.

Susi Safitri, Atira Cesare Mutia

The Impact of China –Emission Trading System Policy Effectiveness on Economic and

Future Forecast: Evidence from Pilot City 753

4 Economical Impact in Pilot City

Graph 5.xx Carbon price

Carbon prices are determined by supply and demand, this can be seen in the

fluctuations shown in Figure 6. Currently China's carbon market is starting to be interactive

like other commodities such as oil, gas, and gold. Several other things that affect China's

market price, of course various global economic events and the entity's expectations of

future environmental regulations whether to be more stringent or not will affect the entity's

decision. In addition, carbon prices can also stimulate the industry to commit to reducing

emissions in practice the industry will switch or replace to the renewable / environmentally

friendly energy rather than buy the carbon with the high price.

Graph 6.xx

Based on the results of the Pearson correlation test, it states that the p-value is 0,000

which is less than 0.05 and the correlation coefficient value is more than 0.5. So it can be

2020,02017,52015,0 2020,02017,52015,0 2020,02017,52015,0

0,015

0,010

0,005

2020,02017,52015,0

2020,02017,52015,0 2020,02017,52015,0

Carbon/GDP; Beijing

Year

Carbon/GDP; Chongqing

Carbon/GDP; Guangdong

Carbon/GDP; Hubei

Carbon/GDP; Shanghai

Carbon/GDP; Tianjin

Carbon Price; Beijing

Carbon Price; Chongqing

Carbon Price; Guangdong

Carbon Price; Hubei

Carbon Price; Shanghai

Carbon Price; Tianjin

Scatterplot of Carbon/GDP; Carbon Price vs Year

Panel variable: Country

Eduvest – Journal of Universal Studies

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concluded that there is a strong correlation between carbon prices and environmental and

economic conditions in China, which in this study is shown by the value of the amount of

carbon per unit of GDP. The correlation given is negative, which mean that the greater the

price of carbon, the lower the carbon amount per GDP

4.5 The Future CO2 Emission in China

For forecasting we use data from 2000-2019. We process this data using the ARIMA

method. Based on the graph, there will be a reduction in CO

/ GDP emissions in the future.

Starting in 2020 there will be more ground for reducing CO

emissions in entities that have

been involved in ETS and the number of entities involved in ETS is also increasing with

ETS coverage that has begun to enter the public sector such as transportation, residential

buildings, airlines and offices. So that CO

emissions are decreasing.

In addition, there will also be many innovations to reduce CO

emissions such as the

waste power plant in Shenzhen, photovoltaics on the roof of residential buildings, CCS

technology (carbon capture storage). The entity is also expected to invest in modernizing

their obsolete power plant. Because the investment value of a new power plant will make

more sense than having to buy carbon.

GDP for the next year will increase. Because the ETS market will continue to grow,

along with the number of entities involved, the volume of money exchange in the

carobon market will continue to increase so that it will have an effect on GDP.

CONCLUSION

China’s energy demand is predicted to keep rising year by year accomplishing with the

economic growth. Coal as the biggest fuel combustion sources still couldn’t be replaced by any

other alternative sources due to the cost and simplicity access to fetch it, making China as the

largest and the youngest coal power fleet. This paper with panel data and linier method analyze

ETS effectiveness on the pilot city: Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing, Shenzhen,

Guangdong, and Hubei provinces. Generally, the effectiveness of ETS policy in China is

significantly decrease the carbon emission amount. It proved by the deviation of area with the

ETS treatment and not is around 47.1%. The economy impact of ETS implementation shows

the increasing of GDP. The trend of carbon amount emission will decreased in the future by

 
Susi Safitri, Atira Cesare Mutia  
 
The Impact of China –Emission Trading System Policy Effectiveness on Economic and 
Future Forecast: Evidence from Pilot City     753 
ETS implementation. However, due the limited data obtained in this study it will be necessary 
to continue this study in the future. 
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