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ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF TOTAL PRODUCTION,

INTERNATIONAL PRICE, EXCHANGE RATE, AND INFLATION ON

THE VOLUME OF INDONESIAN RUBBER EXPORTS, 1980-2018

Anak Agung Sagung Paramita Devi, Made Kembar Sri Budhi, Ni Nyoman

Yuliarmi, Nyoman Djinar Setiawina

Udayana University

E-mail: [email protected], [email protected],

[email protected], [email protected]

Received:March

29th, 2021

Revised: April 6th,

2021

Approved:April

17th, 2021

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to partially and simultaneously

analyze the influence of the variable production quantity,

international prices, exchange rates, inflation on the volume of

Indonesian rubber exports from 1980 to 2018. The research

method uses quantitative methods. Sources of research data from

publications of data collected by government officials or

departments include the website of the Central Statistics Agency

(BPS), Bank Indonesia (BI), the Ministry of Agriculture's Data

and Information Center (Pusdatin), Index Mundi. The research

location was conducted in Indonesia. The data method used in

this study is the non-behavioral observation method. Multiple

linear regression is the type of data used in this study as an

econometric tool to describe this research and also uses data

analysis such as descriptive statistical tests, classical

assumptions test, simultaneous test (F test), and partial test (t-

test). The results of the analysis in this study indicate that the

amount of production, international prices, exchange rates, and

both simultaneously and simultaneously have a significant effect

on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports during the years

1980-2018. Partially the amount of production has a positive

and significant effect on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports

in 1980-2018, while international prices, exchange rates and

inflation have no significant effect on the volume of Indonesian

rubber exports in 1980-2018.

Keywords: Production, International Prices, Exchange Rates,

Inflation, Rubber Export Volume

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons

Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International

INTRODUCTION

The agricultural sector is having an important role in economic activity in

Indonesia, it can be seen from its contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of

Indonesia which is around 12.81 percent in 2018 or is in third place after the

Manufacturing, Wholesale and Retail Industry sectors, Car and Motorcycle Repair

(Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia, 2018). Agriculture is one of the sectors that is important

the government which not only aims to achieve food self-sufficiency but also increases

national exports (Ningsih & Kurniawan, 2016). Jeon (2013) said that if agriculture is

neglected it will lead to the expansion of the unstable informal sector, this will affect the

economy of a country. In addition, Rimbawan (2012) in his research also proved that the

Anak Agung Sagung Paramita Devi, Made Kembar Sri Budhi, Ni Nyoman

Yuliarmi, Nyoman Djinar Setiawina

Analysis of the effect of total production, international price, exchange rate,

and inflation on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports, 1980-2018 183

absorption of workers by the tradable sector (agriculture, industry, and mining &

quarrying) was greater than the non-tradable sector (hotels, trade, restaurants, finance,

transportation, etc.) which means the agricultural sector also plays an important role in

the absorption of labor in Indonesia. The state of the Indonesian economy in a period of

25 years from 1990 to 2014 shows an increasing trend when viewed from several macro

aggregate figures, namely income (GDP), tax revenue, employment opportunities, and

education (Bendesa & Wiwin, 2020). One of the drivers of GDP growth is exports which

then make exports something very important for a country. The cooperation of other

factors is needed to build a good business climate, especially in the export product

business in order to boost the quantity and quality of exports. These factors are population

growth and economic recovery which can have a positive impact on the business world

including the rubber product business (Rahman, 2016).

According to Batubara, Dison M.H. & Saskara (2015) the variable that is

expected to have the greatest contribution to exports in the next ten years is the export

itself with an average annual contribution of 88.46 percent, followed by a GDP

contribution of 7.69 percent, imports of 3.85 percent, and foreign debt of close to zero

percent. Then Tetry A. Sitohang (2016) in his journal also states that the ups and downs

of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves are influenced by the ups and downs of net

exports, the dolar exchange rate and inflation together. Because exports contribute quite a

lot to a country, including to increase foreign exchange and its economy, a country will

try to maximize the potential of its domestic products to be exported abroad. One of

Indonesia's leading export products to be exported abroad are plantation products which

is one of the products in agritcultural sectors. The increasing trend of plantation exports

illustrates that plantation products have been able to compete in the international market

so that they can make a very significant contribution to foreign exchange trade (Rosihan

Asmara & Nesia Artdiyasa, 2008).

Among all of the agricultural sectors in Indonesia, the most prominent sector is

the plantation sub-sector. The contribution of the plantation sub-sector to the Gross

Domestic Product (GDP) of the agricultural sector was 3.30 percent in 2018 or was in the

first place in the Agriculture, Livestock, Hunting and Agricultural Services sectors

(Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia, 2018). Rubber is one of the important plantation

commodities in the export of the plantation sub-sector (Claudia, Yulianto, & Mawardi,

2016). Rubber known for its elastic qualities is a commodity that is used in many

products and equipment around the world. About 85 percent of Indonesia's rubber

production is exported abroad while the rest is for domestic consumption. Nearly half of

the exported rubber production is shipped to other Asian countries, followed by North

America and Europe. The large consumption of developed countries that are oriented

towards the industrial sector opens up opportunities for Indonesia to increase its rubber

exports abroad (Ngatindriatun, Pujiati, & Soesilowati, 2015).

Indonesia is the largest rubber producer in the world after Thailand, so in the

global market the competitiveness of rubber is very good. Sabaruddin (2014) in his

research stated that primary commodities such as rubber, palm oil and natural gas, which

rely on their respective commodity exports, generally outperform China. The other

research by Sattayawaksakul & Choi (2017) shows that Indonesia has the highest

comparative advantage among other rubber exporting countries. From that research, it can

be concluded that Indonesia's rubber commodity has great potential to be developed so

that it can make a greater contribution to Indonesia's foreign exchange.

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Anak Agung Sagung Paramita Devi, Made Kembar Sri Budhi, Ni Nyoman

Yuliarmi, Nyoman Djinar Setiawina

Analysis of the effect of total production, international price, exchange rate,

and inflation on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports, 1980-2018 183

Table 1: Indonesian Rubber Development, 1980-2018

Source: Direktorat Jenderal Perkebunan, processed by Pusdatin (2019)

Year

Production

(Ton)

Export

Volume

(Ton)

Import

Volume

(Ton)

Availability

(Ton/Year)

Growth

(% )

1980

1,020,000

976,131

1,960

45,829

1981

963,238

812,800

2,324

152,762

233.33

1982

899,214

797,608

1,847

103,453

-32.28

1983

1,006,980

938,032

365

69,313

-33.00

1984

1,032,598

1,009,558

23,064

-66.72

1985

1,054,966

987,771

67,239

191.53

1986

1,113,133

958,692

151

154,592

129.91

1987

1,130,351

1,092,525

37,826

-75.53

1988

1,173,298

1,132,132

41,166

8.83

1989

1,209,037

1,151,409

823

58,451

41.99

1990

1,275,295

1,077,331

792

198,756

240.04

1991

1,328,172

1,220,020

1,250

109,402

-44.96

1992

1,398,448

1,267,605

680

131,523

20.22

1993

1,475,438

1,214,568

817

261,687

98.97

1994

1,499,424

1,244,950

2,320

256,794

-1.87

1995

1,573,303

1,324,295

7,566

256,574

-0.09

1996

1,574,026

1,434,285

4,729

144,470

-43.69

1997

1,552,585

1,404,010

6,599

155,174

7.41

1998

1,661,898

1,641,186

13,567

34,279

-77.91

1999

1,604,359

1,494,543

17,962

127,778

272.76

2000

1,501,428

1,379,612

32,548

154,364

20.81

2001

1,607,461

1,453,382

9,298

163,377

5.84

2002

1,630,359

1,495,987

9,911

144,283

-11.69

2003

1,792,348

1,662,210

17,840

147,978

2.56

2004

2,065,817

1,874,261

7,648

199,204

34.62

2005

2,270,891

2,024,593

6,687

252,985

27.00

2006

2,637,231

2,286,897

6,905

357,239

41.21

2007

2,755,172

2,407,972

9,915

357,115

-0.03

2008

2,754,356

2,283,158

12,570

483,768

35.47

2009

2,440,347

1,991,533

12,729

461,543

-4.59

2010

2,734,854

2,351,915

17,096

400,035

-13.33

2011

2,990,184

2,556,233

15,902

449,853

12.45

2012

3,012,254

2,444,503

26,908

594,659

32.19

2013

3,237,433

2,701,995

24,527

559,965

-5.83

2014

3,153,186

2,623,471

28,753

558,468

-0.27

2015

3,145,398

2,630,313

32,747

547,832

-1.90

2016

3,357,951

2,619,331

30,557

769,177

40.40

2017

3,680,428

2,991,909

29,773

718,292

-6.62

2018

3,630,268

2,811,954

46,952

865,266

20.46

Growth Average (% / year)

1980-2018

28.89

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This study proves the high competitiveness of Indonesia's rubber exports. If the

smallholders are able to produce rubber with good quality, the level of competitiveness

can increase more significantly (Arifin, 2013). One of the ways to improve the quality of

rubber is by increasing the amount of capital through investment in technology and

research. This step will increase the industry's ability to increase production efficiency,

such as producing new rubber seeds that can contribute to economic development (Mohd

Fahmy-Abdullaha et al., 2020).

By increasing the quality of rubber products, the opportunities that arise from the

large consumption of the foreign industrial sector can be utilized properly so as to

increase the value of the product and the export competitiveness of rubber itself. Rubber

farmers will also be able to benefit from the increase in rubber exports because based on

the journal written by (Kuswanto, 2019) the problem of farmer welfare is not only

determined by rubber production and the level of household consumption of farmers, but

there are also factors that cannot be controlled by farmers, namely rubber prices and

household consumption goods prices. There are also other factors, namely household

expenses carried out by rubber farmers, one of which is influenced by the rejuvenation of

the rubber tree itself (Marnisah, Karim, Sanmorino, & Jenahar, 2019).

During the 2008-2018 period, if rubber production was compared to the volume

of exports, about 80 percent of Indonesia's rubber production was destined for export and

the rest was for domestic consumption. Rubber itself is a commodity that is not

consumed directly by humans, but rather an industrial demand or through an industrial

process into a new form so that it can be used. Therefore, domestic demand for rubber in

Indonesia is approached from the calculation of availability, namely production minus

export volume and added volume of imports.

In general, the development of Indonesia's rubber export volume from 1980 to

2018 has been quite fluctuating. The highest export volume occurred in 2017, namely

2.99 million tons with a value of 5.10 billion US $, while the highest growth in rubber

export volume occurred in 2010, which was 18.10 percent from 1.99 million tons in 2009

to 2, 35 million tonnes in the following year. In 2018 the export volume decreased

slightly compared to 2017, namely by 6.01 percent or decreased from 2.99 million tons to

2.81 million tons.

In the other side, the development of rubber availability for domestic

consumption from year to year is quite volatile. Based on data from Direktorat Jenderal

Perkebunan & Pusdatin (2019) in Table 1, it was recorded that in 2015 the availability of

domestic rubber was 547.83 thousand tons or decreased by 1.90 percent from 558.46

thousand tons in the previous year, then in 2016 it increased again. 40.40 percent to

769.18 thousand tons. The increase in the availability of domestic rubber demand in 2016

was caused by an increase in production by 6.76 percent and a decrease in exports by

0.41 percent.

Furthermore, in 2017 that number again decreased to 718.29 thousand tons and

vice versa in 2018 the availability again increased to 865.27 thousand tons. From these

data, it can be seen that there is a strong relationship between rubber exports and the

availability of rubber and the amount of domestic production in Indonesia.

Budiman & Penot (1997) in their research stated that there is a slight possibility

of an increase in rubber production, a decrease in the age of immature rubber, an increase

in tapping facilities and savings in tapping labor, as well as an increase in land prices and

better rubber growth. Through this research, it can be seen that there are opportunities to

increase the production of rubber commodities. This increase in production will also have

an effect on increasing exports and fulfilling domestic consumption, where there are

Anak Agung Sagung Paramita Devi, Made Kembar Sri Budhi, Ni Nyoman

Yuliarmi, Nyoman Djinar Setiawina

Analysis of the effect of total production, international price, exchange rate,

and inflation on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports, 1980-2018 185

problems in maximizing export potential due to a decrease in the amount of production

accompanied by an increase in domestic rubber availability or domestic rubber

consumption.

This study uses the theory of supply and demand for international trade. In the

theory of international trade, some people say that the factors affecting exports can be

seen from the demand and supply side. (Krugman, Paul, R & Obstfeld, 2000). From the

demand side, exports are influenced by export prices, real exchange rates, world income

and devaluation policies. Meanwhile, from the supply side, exports are influenced by

export prices, domestic prices, real exchange rates, production capacity that can be

produced through investment, imports of raw materials and deregulation policies.

The relationship between export volume and production also international prices

itself can be illustrated from that theory where when the supply of production or

international prices increases, exports will also increase. Prajanti et al., (2020) In his

research, it proves that partially the production variables have a positive and significant

effect on the volume of Indonesian coffee exports. Siburian, (2014) on the other side,

stated that when the international rubber price increases, Indonesian rubber exporters will

carry out greater production to increase export value.

Other research conducted by Purusa & Istiqomah (2018) states that an increase in

world oil prices or international oil prices will increase export volumes in 5 ASEAN

countries. Meanwhile, between export volume and exchange rate and inflation, the

relationship can be illustrated as when the exchange rate and inflation decline, exports

will increase.

In Mauliana & Jamal (2020) research, it shows that in long-term the exchange

rate and inflation had a dominant influence on export activities in ASEAN-8 countries,

while inflation had a dominant influence on exports in short-term. Chen, Y. C., & Rogoff

(2003) prove that there is a relationship between exchange rates and export commodities.

They found that the real exchange rates of Australia and New Zealand were driven by

world commodity prices. Yazid & Mulyana (2016) said that there is a positive

relationship between the amount of production and the exchange rate and the volume of

Indonesian rubber exports.

Other research conducted by Dewi (2013) states that the amount of production,

land area, and the US Dollar exchange rate simultaneously had a significant effect on

Indonesian rubber exports in 1993-2013, which means that Indonesia's rubber exports

were simultaneously influenced by these factors. Amelia Sri Pramana & Meydianawathi

(2013) also show that the US Dollar exchange rate variable has the most dominant

influence on Indonesia's non-oil and gas sector exports to the United States for the 1991-

2011 period.

This illustrates that the exchange rate or exchange rate has a considerable

influence on a country's export activities. On the other side, Widhi Ari & Meydianawathi

(2014) in their research also stated that the increase in inflation of a country can cause the

production costs of exported goods to be higher and with the high cost of producing these

exported goods it will make exporters unable to produce optimally so that exports will

decrease due to producing goods export commodities require a fairly high cost.

RESEARCH METHODS

The quantitative data is the type of data used in this research. The data source of

this research comes from secondary data. Secondary data used in this study were obtained

from the publication of data collected by official government or department, including the

website of Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Bank Indonesia (BI), Pusat Data dan Informasi

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(Pusdatin) Kementerian Pertanian, Index Mundi. The location of this research was

conducted in Indonesia. The object of this research includes one dependent variable and

four independent variables. The objects in this study are the amount of domestic rubber

production, international rubber prices, exchange rates, Indonesia's inflation rate, and the

volume of Indonesian rubber exports in 1980-2018. This study uses annual data in the

form of a time series with a total number of observations of 39. The data collection

method used in this study is the non-behavioral observation method. Multiple linear

regression is the type of data used in this research as an econometric tool to describe the

characteristics of a sample or the observed location with the help of E-Views 10. This

research also used data analysis like descriptive statistical test, classic assumption test,

simultaneous test (F test), and partial test (t-test).

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The result of the data analysis test is shown below:

Table 1. Descriptive Statistics Test Results

Table 1 shows that the average value of the variable volume of Indonesian rubber

exports is 1687169.0, then the middle value is 1453382.0, the maximum value is

2991909.0, the minimum value is 797608.0, and the standard deviation is 662993.0. The

average value for the variable amount of domestic rubber production is 1947260.0, then

the mean value is 1604359.0, the maximum value is 3680428.0, the minimum value is

899214.0, and the standard deviation is 857588.2.

The average value for the international rubber price variable is 1.689744, then the

median value is 1.610000, the maximum value is 4.750000, the minimum value is

0.490000, and the standard deviation is 0.879720. The average value for the exchange

rate variable is 6764,821, then the median value is 9073,000, the maximum value is

16800.00, the minimum value is 626,0000, and the standard deviation is 5057,372. The

average value for the last variable or Indonesia's inflation rate is 9.331538, the median

value is 8.360000, the maximum value is 77.60000, the minimum value is 2.000000, and

the standard deviation is 11.72006. All variables have a sample of 39 observations.

Mean

1687169.

1947260.

1.689744

6764.821

9.431538

Median

1453382.

1604359.

1.610000

9073.000

8.360000

Maximum

2991909.

3680428.

4.750000

16800.00

77.60000

Minimum

797608.0

899214.0

0.490000

626.0000

2.000000

Std. Dev.

662993.0

857588.2

0.879720

5057.372

11.72006

Observations

Anak Agung Sagung Paramita Devi, Made Kembar Sri Budhi, Ni Nyoman

Yuliarmi, Nyoman Djinar Setiawina

Analysis of the effect of total production, international price, exchange rate,

and inflation on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports, 1980-2018 187

Table 2. Multiple Linear Regression Analysis Results

Dependent Variable: Y

Method: Least Squares

Date: 11/27/20 Time: 10:41

Sample: 1980 2018

Included observations: 39

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

204191.1

40616.50

5.027294

0.0000

0.708665

0.033927

20.88768

0.0000

8708.244

15025.19

0.579576

0.5660

12.04802

5.595855

2.153026

0.0385

721.6504

1288.465

0.560085

0.5791

R-squared

0.990246

Mean dependent var

1687169.

Adjusted R-squared

0.989099

S.D. dependent var

662993.0

S.E. of regression

69221.93

Akaike info criterion

25.24723

Sum squared resid

1.63E+11

Schwarz criterion

25.46051

Log likelihood

-487.3210

Hannan-Quinn criter.

25.32375

F-statistic

862.9733

Durbin-Watson stat

1.671553

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000000

The results obtained from the regression above, when included in the regression

equation, obtain a multiple linear regression equation, namely:

Ŷ = 204192,695 + 0.709 (X

) + 8707,522 (X

) + 12,048 (X

) + 721,706 (X

)

t = (5.027) (20.887) (0.579) (2.153) (0.560)

Sig = (0.000) (0.000) (0.566) (0.039) (0.579)

F = 826,968

Sig = 0,000

= 0.990

Table 3. Normality Test Results

In Table 3, it shows the results of the Jarque-bera test where the resulting

probability value is 0.187597 or greater than the significance of 0.05. So it can be

concluded that the data in this study were normally distributed. Because the residuals

have been tested for normal distribution, the model is suitable for further analysis.

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Table 4. Autocorrelation Test Results

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation

LM Test:

F-statistic

0.490541

Prob. F(2,32)

0.6168

Obs*R-

squared

1.160125

Prob. Chi-

Square(2)

0.5599

Table 4 shows that with the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test the value of Prob Chi

Square (2) which is the p value of the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test is

0.5599 which means that the value is greater than σ = 5 percent. If the probability value is

greater than (>) σ = 5 percent or 0.05, the model under study is not affected by

autocorrelation and is suitable for use for further analysis.

Table 5. Multicollinearity Test Results

Variance Inflation Factors

Date: 11/27/20 Time: 10:42

Sample: 1980 2018

Included observations: 39

Coefficient

Uncentered

Centered

Variable

Variance

VIF

1.65E+09

13.42710

0.001151

42.23795

6.713592

2.26E+08

6.631926

1.385560

31.31359

18.01487

6.351537

1660142.

3.010382

1.808429

In Table 5, it shows that for all the independent variables used, the VIF value at

Centered VIF is smaller than 10. The amount of production (X

) is 6.713592, the

international price (X

) is 1.385560, the exchange rate (X

) is 6.351537, and inflation

) of 1.808429, so it can be concluded that there is no multiple correlation

(multicollinearity) between the independent variables and therefore the assumption of

multicollinearity has been fulfilled.

Table 6. Heteroscedasticity Test Results

Heteroskedasticity Test: Glejser

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

36398.07

21833.32

1.667088

0.1047

0.003153

0.018238

0.172889

0.8638

9591.225

8076.760

1.187509

0.2433

0.140667

3.008041

0.046764

0.9630

-760.2432

692.6118

-1.097647

0.2801

In Table 6 above, it can be seen that all the independent variables used in this

study have a probability value greater than or above 0.05 (significance level ˃ 0.05),

namely the

Anak Agung Sagung Paramita Devi, Made Kembar Sri Budhi, Ni Nyoman

Yuliarmi, Nyoman Djinar Setiawina

Analysis of the effect of total production, international price, exchange rate,

and inflation on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports, 1980-2018 189

amount of production (X

) of 0.8638, international prices (X

) of 0.2433, the exchange

rate (X

) of 0.9630, and inflation (X

) of 0.2801. From these results, it can be concluded

that there is no heteroscedasticity problem in the data used in this study.

A. Simultaneous Significance Test of Regression Coefficient (F test)

To be able to know the effect simultaneously can be seen from the results of F

count

where if the real level (α) = 0.05 the result of F

count

> F

table

(3.14) then the independent

variable is declared to have a simultaneous and significant effect on the dependent

variable. Therefore, in the regression equation above the results of F

count

(826.98) > F

table

(3.14), it means that the variables of the amount of production, international prices,

exchange rates, and inflation have a simultaneous and significant effect on the volume of

Indonesian rubber exports in 1980-2018.

The R

value of 0.990 means that 99.0 percent of the variation in the volume of

Indonesian rubber exports to the international market during 1980-2018 is influenced by

the amount of production (X

), international prices (X

), exchange rate (X

), and inflation

), while the remaining 1.0 percent is influenced by other variables outside the

specified model.

B. Hypothesis Test / Partial Test (t test)

1) Testing the effect of the amount of domestic rubber production (X1) on the

volume of Indonesian rubber exports from 1980 to 2018:

With the real level (α) = 0.05, t

table

= 1.66864 and t

count

20.887, it means that t

count

(20.887) > t

table

(1.66864) then H

is rejected and H

is accepted with a significance level

of 0.000 < 0.05. From the test, it can be concluded that the amount of domestic rubber

production has a positive and partially significant effect on the volume of Indonesian

rubber exports in 1980-2018. The b

coefficient value of 0.708665 means that if the

amount of domestic rubber production increases by one tonne, the volume of Indonesian

rubber exports will increase by 0.708665 tonnes assuming other variables, namely

international prices (X

), exchange rates (X

), and inflation (X

) is constant.

2) Testing the effect of the amount of domestic rubber production (X2) on the

volume of Indonesian rubber exports from 1980 to 2018:

With the real level (α) = 0.05, t

table

= 1.66864 and t

count

= 0.580, which means

count

< t

table

then H

is accepted. Thus it can be concluded, because t

count

(0.580) < t

table

(1.66864) then H

is accepted and H

is rejected with a significance level of 0.5660 >

0.05. This means that partially the international rubber price does not have a significant

effect on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports in 1980-2018.

The b

coefficient value of 8708,244 means that if the international rubber price

increases by one unit of US $ / kilogram, then the export volume of Indonesian rubber

will increase by 8708,244 one ton unit assuming other variables, namely the amount of

production (X

), the exchange rate (X

), and inflation (X

) is constant. The insignificant

effect between international price variables on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports

from 1980 to 2018 resulted in this research being tested because domestic production has

a greater influence on the fluctuation of Indonesia's export volume. Several exporters and

importers also mostly enter into price contracts before entering into buying and selling

transactions so that when the price on the world market goes up or down, it will not have

a significant effect on the agreed export amount.

3) Testing the effect of the amount of domestic rubber production (X3) on the

volume of Indonesian rubber exports from 1980 to 2018:

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With the real level (α) = 0.05, t

table

= 1.66864 and t

count

= 2.153, which means t

count

> t

table

then H

is rejected. Thus it can be concluded, because t

count

(2.153) > t

table

(1.66864)

then H

is rejected and H

is accepted with a significance level of 0.0385 < 0.05. From the

test, it can be concluded that the exchange rate has a positive and significant effect

partially on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports in 1980-2018. The b

coefficient

value of 12.04802 means that if the exchange rate increases by one unit of Rp / US $, the

volume of Indonesian rubber exports will increase by 12.04802 one tonne unit with the

assumption of other variables, namely the amount of production (X

), international prices

), and inflation (X

) is constant. The results of this study are not in accordance with

the hypothesis which states that there is a negative relationship between the two variables,

the resulting positive relationship is because when the Rupiah increases, investors will be

interested in investing in Indonesia so that when investment in the plantation sub-sector,

especially in rubber, increases, it will increase the amount and the quality of production

and in turn this will also affect the volume of Indonesian rubber exports.

4) Testing the effect of the amount of domestic rubber production (X4) on the

volume of Indonesian rubber exports from 1980 to 2018:

With the real level (α) = 0.05, t

table

= 1.66864, and t

count

= 0.560, which means t

count

< t

table

then H

is accepted. Thus it can be concluded, because t

count

(0.560) < t

table

(1.66864) then H

is accepted and H

is rejected with a significance level of 0.5791 >

0.05. This means that partially inflation does not have a significant effect on the volume

of Indonesian rubber exports in 1980-2018.

The b

coefficient value of 721.6504 means that if inflation increases by one unit

percent, the volume of Indonesian rubber exports will increase by 721.6504 one tonne

unit with the assumption of other variables, namely the amount of production (X

international prices (X

), and the exchange rate. (X

) is assumed to be constant. The

results of this study are not in accordance with the hypothesis which states that there is a

negative relationship between the two variables, the resulting positive relationship is

because inflation in Indonesia tends to be high in the year of observation, high inflation

makes capital from debt or loans to produce goods and services increase so that exports

also increase. The cause of the insignificance of the inflation variable is the greater

influence of the production variable on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports for the

period 1980-2018.

CONCLUSION

Based on the results of research with data analysis described in the previous

chapter regarding the analysis of the effect of total production, international prices,

exchange rates, and inflation on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports from 1980 to

2018, the following conclusions are obtained: The amount of domestic rubber production,

international rubber prices, the exchange rate, and the inflation rate in Indonesia have a

simultaneous and significant effect on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports. The

amount of domestic rubber production partially has a positive and significant effect on the

volume of Indonesian rubber exports. International rubber prices have a positive and

insignificant effect on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports. The exchange rate

partially does not have a negative and significant effect on the volume of Indonesian

rubber exports. The inflation rate in Indonesia does not have a negative and significant

effect on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports.

Anak Agung Sagung Paramita Devi, Made Kembar Sri Budhi, Ni Nyoman

Yuliarmi, Nyoman Djinar Setiawina

Analysis of the effect of total production, international price, exchange rate,

and inflation on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports, 1980-2018 191

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