How to cite:

Bambang Purwoko. (2021). Analysis of the effect of inflation on exports of

non-oil and gas commodities through the port of tanjung perak surabaya.

Journal Eduvest. 1(7): 577-584

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Eduvest – Journal of Universal Studies

Volume 1 Number 7, July 2021

p- ISSN 2775-3735- e-ISSN 2775-3727

ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF INFLATION ON EXPORTS OF NON-OIL

AND GAS COMMODITIES THROUGH THE PORT OF TANJUNG PERAK

SURABAYA

Bambang Purwoko

WR Supratman University

E-mail: [email protected]om

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Received:

June, 28

2021

Revised:

July, 9

2021

Approved:

July, 14

2021

Export-import activities are based on the condition that no one

country or region is truly independent because they need and

complement each other. In order to increase the growth of the

national economy, it is necessary to encourage non-oil exports.

The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of inflation on non-

oil and gas commodity exports in 2017-2019. The research

conducted by the researcher is a quantitative correlation study

by understanding the relationship between variables, in this case

the effect of inflation on the export of non-oil and gas

commodities through the Tanjung Perak Port of Surabaya in

2017-2019. The population of this study was taken from data

from the Annual Report of Bank Indonesia and the Port of

Surabaya Harbormaster for the 2017-2019 period. The sample

data is from January 2017 to December 2019. This study used

documentation in collecting the data. The documentation

method is a method of finding data or information related to

research variables through notes, literature, documentation, and

others. The analysis data in this study is used descriptive

statistical, classic assumption tests and simple linear regression

tests. The results of the study conclude that inflation has a

significant positive effect on exports of non-oil and gas

commodities through the Port of Tanjung Perak Surabaya in

2017-2019.

KEYWORDS

Inflation, Exports, Non-Oil And Gas Commodities

Bambang Purwoko

Analysis of the effect of inflation on exports of non-oil and gas commodities through

the port of Tanjung Perak Surabaya 578

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons

Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International

INTRODUCTION

Foreign trade or more specifically, export-import is one of the important sectors in

the economy of every country (AdriAn Sutedi, 2014). Nowadays there is not a single

country on this earth that does not conduct trade relations with outsiders (Muhamad, 2014).

The economy is practically open and intertwined with the international world. Recognizing

trends and performance (exports and imports) is not only useful for observing the

development of a country's trade, but it is also useful for addressing patterns and

characteristics of foreign trade (Simatupang & Puspitasari, 2017).

Trading activities using sea transportation media are a promising alternative (Jinca,

2019). The development of internet technology marks the advances information

technology. It is possible to market the necessary products. Progress in the transportation

sector makes the mobility of goods and capital faster, so that it will further facilitate the

flow of trade (Sasono, 2021).

International trade or concretely export-import is defined as trade in goods and

services across the national borders (Supardi, 2021). The emergence of international trade

as a result of the country's inability to meet its full needs due to the limited resources it has,

makes a country enter into trade relations with other countries that have the required

resources (Oktaviana, 2017).

The export sector is very important given its role related to the position of the

country's foreign exchange reserves and the procurement of imported goods in the country

(Thalib, 2011). Exports are one of the reliable sources of foreign exchange for foreign

countries, foreign exchange from foreign receivables, foreign exchange from securities

abroad and rare sources of foreign exchange, namely loans or foreign debt (Niko &

Samkamaria, 2019). Various export commodities loaded through the Tanjung Perak port

of Surabaya include household appliances, cake, copra, chocolate, seafood, fish, glass,

coffee, rubber, cassava, paper, rattan, plywood, fodder and others.

The qualification or quantification of changes in loading and unloading from ships

and onboard ships did not determine the flow of goods of it (Mohammad, 2018). It

happened in carrying the task of these cases. But this is also determined by other external

factors (Firayanti, 2018). Such an example, that factor is the role of the port administrator

in determining the location of mooring ship, it is far or close to line or stockpiling

warehouse. Then, in managing export documents at the Custom Office Tanjung Perak

Surabaya is one of the role of the ship’s freight forwarder. Natural condisitons such as the

rainy season also greatly affect the smooth flow of loading and unloading ships.

Meanwhile, the strategy that can be used to increase non-oil and gas exports in East

Java is to optimize the market potential in other provinces, such as South Kalimantan, East

Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, East Nusa Tenggara, West Nusa Tenggara, and East

Kalimantan provinces. South Sumatra. Furthermore, he actively participated in

international exhibitions, both in Jakarta and other countries. Another strategy is to create

efficiency, effectiveness, and productivity in the production process in order to compete in

the international market (Mario, 2016).

Various internal and external factors play a role in influencing the export volume

(Rosida, 2017), namely the inflation rate in the country which affects the prices of domestic

products and prices of ex-imported items including ex-imported livestock meat, the

Eduvest – Journal of Universal Studies

Volume 1 Number 7, July 2021

579 http://eduvest.greenvest.co.id

increase in freight at Tanjung Perak Surabaya Organda, thereby increasing transportation

costs. It included land and water transportation, particularly the transportation for

importers. Based on the background of the problem, the problem that will be formulated in

this research is stated as follows: Does inflation affect the export of non-oil and gas

commodities through the Tanjung Perak Port of Surabaya.

Previously, there was previous research that was relevant to this research, namely

research written by (Rafii, 2020) with the title The Effect of Inflation, Exchange Rates, and

Ship's Call Units on Exports of Non-Oil and Gas Commodities passing through the Tanjung

Perak Port of Surabaya in 2017-2019. The results of the study indicate that inflation affects

the export of non-oil and gas commodities through the Port of Tanjung Perak, Surabaya.

The exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on the export of non-oil and gas

commodities through the Port of Tanjung Perak, Surabaya. The ship's call unit has a

positive and significant impact on the export of non-oil and gas commodities through the

Tanjung Perak Port, Surabaya. Inflation has a dominant effect compared to the exchange

rate and ship's call units on exports of non-oil and gas commodities through the Port of

Tanjung Perak, Surabaya. In contrast to previous studies, this study only focuses on

analyzing the effect of inflation on non-oil and gas commodity exports.

RESEARCH METHODS

The research conducted by the researcher is a quantitative correlation study by

understanding the relationship between variables, in this case the effect of inflation on the

export of non-oil and gas commodities through the Tanjung Perak Port of Surabaya in

2017-2019 (Sugiyono, 2019). The population of this study was taken from data from the

Annual Report of Bank Indonesia and the Port of Surabaya Harbormaster for the 2017-

2019 period. The sample data is from January 2017 to December 2019. This study used

documentation in collecting the data is obtained from the Annual Report of Bank Indonesia

and the Port of Surabaya Harbormaster. The documentation method is a method of finding

data or information related to research variables through notes, literature, documentation,

and others. The analysis data in this study is used descriptive statistical, classic assumption

tests and simple linear regression tests with the following model:

Y= α + β

+ e

Where:

Y =Export Volume

α =Constant

=Inflation

e =variable residual (error)

=Regression Coefficient

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

A. Descriptive Statistical Analysis

Descriptive statistical analysis in this study is used to find out a description of

inflation and exports of non-oil and gas commodities through the port of Tanjung Perak

Surabaya. The results are as follows:

Bambang Purwoko

Analysis of the effect of inflation on exports of non-oil and gas commodities through

the port of Tanjung Perak Surabaya 580

Table 1 Descriptive Statistics of Research Data

Minimum

Maximum

Mean

Std.Deviation

-,07

2,89

1,5178

1,08981

957747,79

1765223,38

1349114,609

243453,2508

Valid N

(listwise)

Source: processed secondary data, 2021

Based on the results of descriptive statistical calculations of inflation data related to

exports of non-oil and gas commodities through the port of Tanjung Perak Surabaya in two

years, from 2017 to 2019 it is known that the lowest inflation rate is -0.07; the highest

inflation rate is 2.89 and the standard deviation is 1.08981. The average inflation rate in

2017-2019 was 1.5178.

B. Data Analysis Process

Classic Assumption Testing

A certain data assumpsion derives the formula called as a regression. So that it menas

not all data are allowed to apply a regression. The implementation of regression will be

biased estimates if the data cannot meet the regression assumptions. Consisting normality,

multicolinearity, heteroskedastisity and autocorrelation tests are including to the classic

assumption tests.

1. Normality Test

Kolmogorov Smirnov test and normal probably plot of standardized residual in

testing normality. From the calculation of the characteristics of social responsibility

disclosure, then to know the distribution, the normality test (Kolmogorov Smirnovtest), if

obtained p>0.05 means that the data is normal distribution so that it can be continued with

statistical analysis using multiple linear regressions. It was obtained that for inflation (X

)

and export volume of export comditas through the port of Tanjung Perak Surabaya (Y) is

distributed normally, shown in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1. Normality Test

Based on Figure 1 obtained data spread around the diagonal line and following the

diagonal line direction shows the normal distribution pattern.

2. Multicolinearity Test

Multicolinearity relates to situations where linear relationships are definite or close

between free variables. The influence of multicolinearity in this study will be eliminated

by eliminating variables that have a high zero degree correlation (simple correlation). The

guideline of a multicolinearity-free regression model is to have a value (VIF) around the

Eduvest – Journal of Universal Studies

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581 http://eduvest.greenvest.co.id

number one, and have a Tolerance Value approaching 0.1 while the limit of VIF value is

10. Here are the results of multicolinearity testing:

Table 2. Variance Inflation Factor Values

No.

Variable

VIF Value

1.018

Source: Data processed, 2021

The test results showed that there were no symptoms of multico-co-inicity because

the VIF value was greater than one and it is smaller by 10. By looking at the results of the

multicolinearity test above, there is none of the free variable in tolerancing value smaller

than 0.1. It is allowed to the VIF value which the variable are not greater than 10. Thus it

can be concluded that there is no perfect correlation between free variables (independent),

so this regression model is no problem multicolinearita.

3. Heteroskedastisity Test

Heteroskedastik tests are conducted through scatterplotchart analysis. If a scatterplot chart

has a data distribution pattern that forms a specific pattern then it shows homoskedastik.

Conversely, if a scatterplot chart pattern does not form a particular pattern or randomly

then it shows no heterokedastik. A random pattern on the chart as shown in the image below

shows the linear regression model does not meet heteroskedastik assumptions. Thus,

heteroskedastik tests through scatterplot charts show that multiple linear regression models

meet homoskedastic assumptions.

Figure 2. Heterokedastisity Test

4. Autocorrelation Test

The autocorrelation test aims to determine whether or not there are deviations that

occur in the classic assumption of autocorrelation, i.e. correlations that occur between

residuals on one observation with another observation on the regression model. The results

of the autocorrelation test using durbin-watson test (DW Test) showed that the DW number

was between -2 to +2, which is 1,215. Thus, it is concluded that there is no correlation

between the value of a variable and the value of the same variable in one or more previous

periods.

Table 3. Autocorrelation Test Results with Durbin-Watson

Type

Information

Regression model

0,715

No autocorrelation

The result of conducting the classic assumption is the model has been used meet the

previous setted classic assumption. This is also met the criteria of Best Linear Unbiased

Estimated (BLUE) which means the regression model can be used as the basis analysis of

this study.

5. Linear Regression Testing

Bambang Purwoko

Analysis of the effect of inflation on exports of non-oil and gas commodities through

the port of Tanjung Perak Surabaya 582

Simple regression analysis is performed to prove the influence of independent

variables on dependent variables. In this study, simple linear regression tests were used to

determine the effect of inflation on exports of non-oil and gas commodities through the

port of Tanjung Perak Surabaya. Based on the calculation obtained the following results:

Table 4. Simple Linear Regression Test Results

variable

Regression

Coefficient

count

Significant

constant

1140008.252

20.327

0.000

Inflation (X

)

137771,391

4.568

0.000

a. Predictors: (Constant), X

b. Dependent Variable: Y

From table 4 which is the result of simple linear regression tests can be created the

following regression equations:

Y = 1140008.252 + 137771.391X

Based on the regression equation above, the following interpretation can be made:

1. α = 1140008.252; The constant value for the regression equation is

1140008.252with a positive parameter. This means that inflation will increase the

export of non-oil and gas commodities through the port of Tanjung Perak

Surabaya.

2. β

= 137771.391; The large regression coefficient to the variable inflation is

150362,387 with positive parameters. This means that there is an increase in

inflation of 1%; it will have an impact on the increase in exports of non-oil and gas

commodities through the port of Tanjung Perak Surabaya by 137771,391%.

6. Test T

This t test is a partial independent variable test of dependent variables. In this study,

T test was used to determine the effect of inflation on non-oil and gas commodity exports

through the port of Tanjung Perak Surabaya in 2017-2019. The result is as follows:

Table 5. T Statistical Test Results

variable

Regression

Coefficient

count

Significant

constant

1140008.252

20.327

0.000

Inflation (X

)

137771,391

4.568

0.000

a. Dependent Variable: Y

Source: Secondary data processed, 2021

Based on the calculation result for the influence of inflation on the export of non-

oil and gas commodities through the port of Tanjung Perak Surabaya in 2017-2019

obtained a calculated t value of 4,568 with p = 0,000. Which t

calculate

> t

table

(4,568 > 1,688)

and p < 0.05 so that H

is accepted, meaning inflation has positive and it is significant

effect on the export of non-oil and gas commodities through the port of Tanjung Perak

Surabaya in 2017-2019.

7. Model Accuracy Test

Determination Coefficient (R

)

The calculation result obtained the value of the coefficient of determination (R

0.380. This means that inflation contributes 38,0% to the export of non-oil and gas

commodities through the port of Tanjung Perak Surabaya in 2017-2019, while the

remaining 62.0%, can be explained by other variables outside the model.

8. Hypothesis Test Results

Eduvest – Journal of Universal Studies

Volume 1 Number 7, July 2021

583 http://eduvest.greenvest.co.id

Effect of Inflation on Exports of Non-Oil and Gas Commodities through the Port of

Tanjung Perak Surabaya

Based on the calculation of the effect of inflation on the export of non-oil and gas

commodities through the port of Tanjung Perak Surabaya in 2017-2019 obtained a

calculated t value of 4,568 with p = 0,000. Which are t

calculate

> t

table

(4,568> 1,688) and p <

0.05 so that H

is accepted, meaning inflation has a positive and significant effect on the

export volume of export commodities through the port of Tanjung Perak Surabaya in 2017-

2019.

Based on the results of this study, inflation effects to the exports of non-oil and gas

commodities positively, through Tanjung Perak Surabaya port in 2017 until 2019. It is

caused by the high rate of inflation that associated with overheated economic conditions.

That means it is experiencing the conditions where the capacity of their product is lower

than the demand for products. This condition makes the prices tend to increase. Too high

inflation will also lead to a decrease inpurchasing power of money).

The results of this study are contrary to research conducted by Rauzatul Ulfa and

Devi Andriyani (2019) which concluded that partial inflation (X3) had no effect on the

export of non-oil and gas commodities in Indonesia in 1985-2017. The same opinion is

research conducted by Yito Lestiyono which concluded that variable inflation has no effect

on the export of non-oil and gas commodities in Indonesia in 2002-2007.

Inflation has a significant effect on non-oil and gas exports in Port of Tanjung Perak

Surabaya because inflation is the only dominant factor inhibiting exports, especially the

non-oil and gas sector. Most of the raw materials used by export actors are by using

imported raw materials. While the average main export commodity is raw goods from

natural products. The existence of import tariffs as a protectionist policy on domestic goods

that eventually resulted in a high price to pay consumers. Most of the goods exported are

raw materials such as agricultural products, plantations and others that do not go through

further processing that has added value so that the export selling price is low.

CONCLUSION

The conclusion of this is study: That inflation has a positive and significant effect

on the export of non-oil and gas commodities through the Tanjung Perak port of Surabaya

in 2017-2019. Where decision making for companies must pay attention to the element of

inflation, because the increase in inflation rates affect the export of non-oil and gas

commodities through the Tanjung Perak port of Surabaya.

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